The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Toulouse go in as favourites: 51% to win, 29% for the opponent.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
The most common scores at these chances: 1:2 (about 8%), 1:1 and 2:2.
The model gives Toulouse a few more chances: 2.26 against 1.67. Both sides are in similar shape: Marseille 9 points from the last 5 matches, Toulouse 9 points. Toulouse are well short: 4.5 points below their play. Teams like that usually catch up over time, but there is no guarantee.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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