Paris FC vs Angers: match prediction

Paris FC

VS

Angers

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

79%Paris FC

14%Draw

7%Angers

Everything points to Paris FC: 79% against 7%.

Expected goals and likely score

2.54Paris FC · model expected goals · Angers0.64

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4	3	1	0	0
1	11	7	2	0	0
2	13	9	3	1	0
3	11	7	2	0	0
4	7	5	1	0	0

In the model 2:0 comes up most often (about 13%), then 3:0 and 1:0.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

A big gap in chances in the model: Paris FC 2.54, the opponent 0.64. The two sides are at opposite ends on form: Paris FC 9 points from the last 5 matches, Angers just 1 point. On their play Angers would have 1.6 more points than they do.

Form: recent matches

Paris FCLWLWW

AngersLLDLL

Team comparison

316

League position

208

Points

19.89.6

Expected points (xPTS)

1.761.31

xG per match

0.872.06

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions