The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
The model rates Paris FC clearly higher: 60% against 15%.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
In the model 1:0 comes up most often (about 17%), then 2:0 and 0:0.
A clear edge in chances: Paris FC 1.58, the opponent 0.63. Little to choose on recent results: Paris FC 7 points from the last 5 matches, Monaco 6 points. The table flatters Monaco: 4.3 points above their play, and a gap like that usually narrows.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
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