The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Almost even: 40% home, 24% draw, 36% away.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
The most common scores at these chances: 1:1 (about 11%), 2:1 and 1:2.
The model's expected goals are almost level: Strasbourg 1.56, Auxerre 1.47. The two sides are at opposite ends on form: Auxerre 10 points from the last 5 matches, Strasbourg just 1 point.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions