Troyes vs Le Havre: match prediction

Troyes

VS

Le Havre

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

46%Troyes

24%Draw

30%Le Havre

Close, but Troyes have a bit more: 46% against 30%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.67Troyes · model expected goals · Le Havre1.28

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5	7	4	2	1
1	9	11	7	3	1
2	7	9	6	3	1
3	4	5	3	1	0
4	2	2	1	1	0

In the model 1:1 comes up most often (about 11%), then 2:1 and 1:0.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

The model gives Troyes a few more chances: 1.67 against 1.28. Form is with Troyes: 4 points from the last 5 matches, Le Havre 0 points. The table is unfair to Le Havre: 8.0 points below their play. The gap usually narrows, though not necessarily at once.

Form: recent matches

TroyesLLDWL

Le HavreLLLLL

Team comparison

1718

League position

82

Points

10.810

Expected points (xPTS)

1.191.43

xG per match

1.601.99

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table → · Ligue 1: next round predictions