Pitch Radar

Troyes vs Le Mans: what the numbers say

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 31 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win39%Troyes
Draw22%
Away win39%Le Mans
Expected points, home1.38

What to expect

No clear favourite: 39% home, 22% draw, 39% away. Attack against defence: Le Mans should create more, 1.83 expected goals a match against 1.67.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Troyes16544.0+0.11.242.10
Le Mans9565.2+0.81.562.09

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Ligue 1 matches with xG → · Full Ligue 1 xPTS table →