The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.43.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron Tolyatti | 2 | 0.86 | +1.1 | 1.04 |
| CSKA Moscow | 2 | 1.29 | +0.7 | 1.68 |
Akron Tolyatti: −1.7 for the season (13 in the table). CSKA Moscow: +3.1 (4). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.