Akron Tolyatti — CSKA Moscow 2:2
Akron Tolyatti
CSKA MoscowThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Who deserved it
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.43.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron Tolyatti | 2 | 0.86 | +1.1 | 1.03 |
| CSKA Moscow | 2 | 1.29 | +0.7 | 1.68 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' | Luciano Gondou | CSKA Moscow | 0.76 | Kirill Glebov |
| 22' | Yomar Rocha | Akron Tolyatti | 0.05 | Gilson Benchimol |
| 65' | Gilson Benchimol | Akron Tolyatti | 0.55 | Stefan Loncar |
| 76' | Henrique Carmo | CSKA Moscow | 0.02 | Matheus Alves |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' | Luciano Gondou | CSKA Moscow | 0.76 | goal |
| 65' | Gilson Benchimol | Akron Tolyatti | 0.55 | goal |
| 87' | Luciano Gondou | CSKA Moscow | 0.13 | saved |
Shots: Akron Tolyatti 7, CSKA Moscow 17; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 1.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Akron Tolyatti 0.08, CSKA Moscow 1.02: a clear edge for CSKA Moscow. In the second half xG was Akron Tolyatti 0.77, CSKA Moscow 0.27: a small edge for Akron Tolyatti. The edge in chances passed from CSKA Moscow to Akron Tolyatti. Akron Tolyatti scored 2 from 0.86 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.
How it fits the season
Akron Tolyatti: −2.6 for the season (14 in the table). CSKA Moscow: +2.7 (5). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.