CSKA Moscow
Next match
CSKA Moscow
Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 54% · draw 24% · defeat 22%
Fixture difficulty
The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.
What the numbers say
Points. 26 points from 23.3 xPTS (+2.7). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 4th in the league, but 5th in the table. Source of the surplus: conceding less than expected (−2.6 vs xGA).
Attack. 1.70 xG per match — 2nd of 16 (league average 1.24): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 23 goals from 23.7 xG — finishing is on par. What they create is what they score.
Defence. 1.33 xGA per match — 11th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.24): allows plenty of chances near its own goal. Conceded 16 goals from 18.6 xGA — 14% fewer than expected. The gap is small, still within the usual spread.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.19 per match: expected pace 1.7 points per match vs the current 1.9.
Round by round
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Fixtures and forecast
Current pace is 1.86 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.82. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.1 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Win | Draw | Defeat | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat Grozny | home | 2026-11-21 | 54% | 24% | 22% | 1.87 |
 Zenit | home | 2026-11-28 | 36% | 25% | 40% | 1.32 |
 Rodina Moscow | away | 2026-12-05 | 63% | 19% | 18% | 2.09 |
 Rostov | home | 2027-02-27 | 57% | 24% | 19% | 1.95 |
 Lokomotiv Moscow | away | 2027-03-06 | 56% | 20% | 24% | 1.87 |
Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow CSKA Moscow and it will write when results and performance diverge.
The season so far
Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.
Baltika Kaliningrad 2:1 
Krylia Sovetov 1:1 Rostov 0:0 · away
Fakel Voronezh 1:0 Lokomotiv Moscow 3:2 
Akron Tolyatti 2:2 · awayZenit 2:1 · away
Rubin Kazan 1:1 
Dynamo Makhachkala 3:1 · awayRodina Moscow 3:0 
Dynamo Moscow 1:3 · away
Spartak Moscow 2:0 
Orenburg 0:0 · away
Krasnodar 2:4 · awayAkhmat Grozny · 11.21Zenit · 11.28Rodina Moscow · 12.05Rostov · 02.27Lokomotiv Moscow · 03.06Club players
Around them in the table
| Place | Club | P | Points | xPTS | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 14 | 29 | 27.5 | +1.5 |
| 4 | Krasnodar | 14 | 26 | 19.4 | +6.6 |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 14 | 26 | 23.3 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Rostov | 14 | 19 | 16.8 | +2.2 |
| 7 | Krylia Sovetov | 14 | 18 | 22.0 | −4.0 |