Akron Tolyatti
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Akron Tolyatti
Fakel VoronezhFakel Voronezh · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 46% · draw 30% · defeat 24%
Fixture difficulty
The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.
What the numbers say
Points. 12 points from 14.6 xPTS (−2.6). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 13th in the league, but 14th in the table. Source of the shortfall: extra goals conceded (+6.2 vs xGA).
Attack. 0.93 xG per match — 13th of 16 (league average 1.24): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 17 goals from 13.0 xG — 31% more than expected. Finishing is clearly above par — some of these goals will probably stop going in.
Defence. 1.34 xGA per match — 12th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.24): allows plenty of chances near its own goal. Conceded 25 goals from 18.8 xGA — 33% more than expected — the biggest overshoot of conceded goals in the league. Opponents are finishing better than the quality of their chances allows.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.18 points per match: expected pace 1.0 points per match vs the current 0.9.
Round by round
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Fixtures and forecast
Current pace is 0.86 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.12. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.6 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Win | Draw | Defeat | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh | home | 2026-11-21 | 46% | 30% | 24% | 1.69 |
 Rubin Kazan | away | 2026-11-28 | 27% | 31% | 42% | 1.13 |
 Orenburg | home | 2026-12-05 | 28% | 28% | 44% | 1.12 |
 Akhmat Grozny | away | 2027-02-27 | 22% | 30% | 48% | 0.96 |
 Spartak Moscow | home | 2027-03-06 | 15% | 23% | 62% | 0.68 |
Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Akron Tolyatti and it will write when results and performance diverge.
The season so far
Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.
Zenit 0:5 Rubin Kazan 1:2 
Lokomotiv Moscow 0:0 · away
Rodina Moscow 3:3 · away
Krylia Sovetov 0:3 
CSKA Moscow 2:2 Orenburg 2:2 · away
Krasnodar 1:1 · awayAkhmat Grozny 2:0 
Rostov 0:1 · away
Dynamo Makhachkala 1:1 · away
Dynamo Moscow 3:1 
Baltika Kaliningrad 1:2 · awaySpartak Moscow 1:2 · awayFakel Voronezh · 11.21Rubin Kazan · 11.28Orenburg · 12.05Akhmat Grozny · 02.27Spartak Moscow · 03.06Club players
Around them in the table
| Place | Club | P | Points | xPTS | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Akhmat Grozny | 14 | 14 | 18.1 | −4.1 |
| 13 | Rodina Moscow | 14 | 12 | 12.3 | −0.3 |
| 14 | Akron Tolyatti | 14 | 12 | 14.6 | −2.6 |
| 15 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 14 | 11 | 13.6 | −2.6 |
| 16 | Fakel Voronezh | 14 | 6 | 12.5 | −6.5 |