Baltika Kaliningrad — Rubin Kazan 1:1
Baltika Kaliningrad1:1
Rubin KazanThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Score1:1
Home xG0.70Baltika Kaliningrad
Away xG0.82Rubin Kazan
Expected points1.21 : 1.42
Who deserved it
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.12.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 1 | 0.70 | +0.3 | 1.21 |
| Rubin Kazan | 1 | 0.82 | +0.2 | 1.42 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' | Jacques Siwe | Rubin Kazan | 0.34 | Ilya Rozhkov |
| 93' | Sergey Varatynov | Baltika Kaliningrad | 0.15 | Vladislav Pospelov |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' | Jacques Siwe | Rubin Kazan | 0.34 | goal |
| 93' | Sergey Varatynov | Baltika Kaliningrad | 0.15 | goal, header, from a set piece |
| 11' | Jakhongir Urozov | Rubin Kazan | 0.10 | off target, header, from a corner |
Shots: Baltika Kaliningrad 17, Rubin Kazan 10; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 0 and 1.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Baltika Kaliningrad 0.10, Rubin Kazan 0.72: a small edge for Rubin Kazan. In the second half xG was Baltika Kaliningrad 0.59, Rubin Kazan 0.11: a small edge for Baltika Kaliningrad. The edge in chances passed from Rubin Kazan to Baltika Kaliningrad.
How it fits the season
Baltika Kaliningrad: −6.1 for the season (9 in the table). Rubin Kazan: +2.1 (8). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.