The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.12.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 1 | 0.70 | +0.3 | 1.22 |
| Rubin Kazan | 1 | 0.82 | +0.2 | 1.42 |
Baltika Kaliningrad: −5.2 for the season (8 in the table). Rubin Kazan: +1.7 (6). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.