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Baltika Kaliningrad

RPL · Russia · season 2026/27 · 14 matches · 4W 5D 5L
Place9 of 16
Points17
xPTS23.1
Δ points − xPTS−6.1
Scored / xG17 / 18.3
Conceded / xGA15 / 11.8

Next match

Orenburg
VS
Baltika Kaliningrad

Orenburg · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 37% · draw 30% · defeat 33%

The match in numbers →

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

Orenburg 37%Akhmat Grozny 54%Zenit 27%

What the numbers say

Points. 17 points from 23.1 xPTS (−6.1). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 5th in the league, but 9th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−1.3 goals vs xG) and extra goals conceded (+3.2 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.31 xG per match — 7th of 16 (league average 1.24): an average attack for this league. Scored 17 goals from 18.3 xG — 7% fewer than expected. A small finishing shortfall, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 0.84 xGA per match — 1st of 16 for solidity (league average 1.24): allows less in front of its own goal than anyone in the league. Conceded 15 goals from 11.8 xGA — 27% more than expected. Opponents are finishing better than the quality of their chances allows.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.44 points per match: expected pace 1.7 points per match vs the current 1.2.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

01223 1 14 round 1: 1:2, Points 0, xPTS 0.9round 2: 2:1, Points 3, xPTS 2.8round 3: 2:0, Points 6, xPTS 5.2round 4: 1:2, Points 6, xPTS 6.2round 5: 1:1, Points 7, xPTS 7.3round 6: 3:0, Points 10, xPTS 10.3round 7: 0:1, Points 10, xPTS 11.7round 8: 2:2, Points 11, xPTS 14.1round 9: 2:3, Points 11, xPTS 16.1round 10: 0:0, Points 12, xPTS 17.3round 11: 0:0, Points 13, xPTS 18.0round 12: 1:1, Points 14, xPTS 19.2round 13: 2:1, Points 17, xPTS 21.0round 14: 0:1, Points 17, xPTS 23.1
Points 17 xPTS 23.1 performance is 6.1 ahead of points

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.21 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.69. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.4 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

OpponentVenueDateWinDrawDefeatExpected points
Orenburgaway2026-11-2137%30%33%1.40
Akhmat Groznyhome2026-11-2854%29%18%1.89
Zenitaway2026-12-0527%30%44%1.09
Rodina Moscowhome2027-02-2775%17%8%2.42
Rostovaway2027-03-0643%33%24%1.63

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Baltika Kaliningrad and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

CSKA Moscow 1:2 · awayDynamo Moscow 2:1 Krylia Sovetov 2:0 · awaySpartak Moscow 1:2 Rubin Kazan 1:1 Rodina Moscow 3:0 · awayLokomotiv Moscow 0:1 Fakel Voronezh 2:2 · awayZenit 2:3 Akhmat Grozny 0:0 · awayRostov 0:0 Krasnodar 1:1 · awayAkron Tolyatti 2:1 Dynamo Makhachkala 0:1 Orenburg · 11.21Akhmat Grozny · 11.28Zenit · 12.05Rodina Moscow · 02.27Rostov · 03.06

Club players

Brayan GilVladislav PospelovChinonso OfforIlya PetrovMaksim PetrovNathan Gassama

Around them in the table

PlaceClubPPointsxPTSΔ
7Krylia Sovetov141822.0−4.0
8Rubin Kazan141815.9+2.1
9Baltika Kaliningrad141723.1−6.1
10Orenburg141720.3−3.3
11Dynamo Makhachkala141618.6−2.6

Full RPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league

ZenitDynamo MoscowSpartak MoscowKrasnodarCSKA MoscowRostovKrylia SovetovRubin KazanOrenburgDynamo MakhachkalaAkhmat GroznyRodina MoscowAkron TolyattiLokomotiv MoscowFakel Voronezh