Points. 11 points from 16.2 xPTS (−5.2). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 2nd in the league, but 8th in the table. Source of the shortfall: extra goals conceded (+4.3 vs xGA).
Attack. 1.49 xG per match — 3rd of 16 (league average 1.21): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 14 goals from 13.4 xG — finishing is on par.
Defence. 0.85 xGA per match — 2nd of 16 for solidity (league average 1.21). Conceded 12 goals from 7.7 xGA — 4.3 more than expected: opponents are scoring almost everything and the goalkeeper is not helping. By the quality of chances allowed this is one of the best defences in the league — fewer goals should go in.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.57 points per match: expected pace 1.8 points per match vs the current 1.2.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.22 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.89. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.4 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat Grozny | away | 2026-10-10 | 1.69 |
| Rostov | home | 2026-10-17 | 2.25 |
| Krasnodar | away | 2026-10-24 | 1.45 |
| Akron Tolyatti | home | 2026-10-31 | 2.23 |
| Dynamo Makhachkala | home | 2026-11-07 | 1.83 |