Rubin Kazan

RPL · Russia · season 2026/27 · 14 matches · 4W 6D 4L

Place8 of 16

Points18

xPTS15.9

Δ points − xPTS+2.1

Scored / xG14 / 12.9

Conceded / xGA18 / 17.7

Next match

Rubin Kazan

Zenit

Zenit · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 20% · draw 27% · defeat 53%

The match in numbers →

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A tough run.

Zenit 20%

Akron Tolyatti 42%

Krasnodar 20%

What the numbers say

Points. 18 points from 15.9 xPTS (+2.1). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 12th in the league, but 8th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+1.1 goals above xG).

Attack. 0.92 xG per match — 14th of 16 (league average 1.24): the attack creates less than most rivals. Scored 14 goals from 12.9 xG — finishing is on par. 14th of 16 for goals per match.

Defence. 1.26 xGA per match — 10th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.24): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 18 goals from 17.7 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed. What they allow is what they concede.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.15 per match: expected pace 1.1 points per match vs the current 1.3.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Points 18 xPTS 15.9 points are 2.1 ahead of performance

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.29 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.00. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.0 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Opponent	Venue	Date	Win	Draw	Defeat	Expected points
Zenit	home	2026-11-21	20%	27%	53%	0.88
Akron Tolyatti	home	2026-11-28	42%	31%	27%	1.56
Krasnodar	away	2026-12-05	20%	27%	53%	0.88
Dynamo Moscow	away	2027-02-27	14%	24%	62%	0.67
Akhmat Grozny	away	2027-03-06	23%	31%	46%	1.00