CSKA Moscow — Baltika Kaliningrad 2:1
CSKA Moscow2:1
Baltika KaliningradThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Score2:1
Home xG2.19CSKA Moscow
Away xG1.56Baltika Kaliningrad
Expected points1.77 : 1.03
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: CSKA Moscow was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow | 2 | 2.19 | −0.2 | 1.77 |
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 1 | 1.56 | −0.6 | 1.03 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' | Chinonso Offor | Baltika Kaliningrad | 0.64 | Nathan Gassama |
| 32' | Eduardo Anderson (own goal) | CSKA Moscow | — | |
| 35' | Kirill Glebov | CSKA Moscow | 0.72 | Daniil Krugovoy |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35' | Kirill Glebov | CSKA Moscow | 0.72 | goal |
| 92' | Imran Firov | CSKA Moscow | 0.71 | saved |
| 0' | Chinonso Offor | Baltika Kaliningrad | 0.64 | goal |
Shots: CSKA Moscow 18, Baltika Kaliningrad 14; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 4 and 2.
How the game went
In the first half xG was CSKA Moscow 0.94, Baltika Kaliningrad 1.43: a small edge for Baltika Kaliningrad. In the second half xG was CSKA Moscow 1.81, Baltika Kaliningrad 0.17: a big edge for CSKA Moscow. The edge in chances passed from Baltika Kaliningrad to CSKA Moscow.
How it fits the season
CSKA Moscow: +2.7 for the season (5 in the table). Baltika Kaliningrad: −6.1 (9). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.