The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A draw, but Orenburg created more (2.57 xG against 0.41) — points dropped.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg | 1 | 2.57 | −1.6 | 2.64 |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | 1 | 0.41 | +0.6 | 0.24 |
Orenburg: −4.3 for the season (11 in the table). Lokomotiv Moscow: −0.9 (14). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.