Orenburg — Lokomotiv Moscow 1:1

Orenburg

1:1

Lokomotiv Moscow

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

A draw, but Orenburg created more (2.57 xG against 0.41) — points dropped.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Orenburg	1	2.57	−1.6	2.64
Lokomotiv Moscow	1	0.41	+0.6	0.24

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
2'	Alexey Batrakov	Lokomotiv Moscow	0.02	Aleksandr Silyanov
61'	Andrey Kasadzhikov	Orenburg	0.34	Ruslan Kul

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
68'	Evgeni Bolotov	Orenburg	0.54	saved, from a set piece
61'	Andrey Kasadzhikov	Orenburg	0.34	goal, header
1'	Gedeon Guzina	Orenburg	0.21	saved, header

Shots: Orenburg 27, Lokomotiv Moscow 11; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 3 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Orenburg 0.76, Lokomotiv Moscow 0.22: a small edge for Orenburg. In the second half xG was Orenburg 2.27, Lokomotiv Moscow 0.20: a big edge for Orenburg. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Orenburg scored 1 from 2.57 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Orenburg: −3.3 for the season (10 in the table). Lokomotiv Moscow: −2.6 (15). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

All RPL matches with xG →