Orenburg
Next match
Orenburg
Baltika KaliningradBaltika Kaliningrad · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 33% · draw 30% · defeat 37%
Fixture difficulty
The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.
What the numbers say
Points. 17 points from 20.3 xPTS (−3.3). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 7th in the league, but 10th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−4.6 goals vs xG).
Attack. 1.33 xG per match — 6th of 16 (league average 1.24): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 14 goals from 18.6 xG — 25% fewer than expected — the worst finishing in the league. Finishing is clearly below par — the chances are the same, so the goals will probably follow.
Defence. 1.14 xGA per match — 8th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.24): mid-table for chances allowed. Conceded 14 goals from 16.0 xGA — 13% fewer than expected. The gap is small, still within the usual spread.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.23 points per match: expected pace 1.4 points per match vs the current 1.2.
Round by round
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Fixtures and forecast
Current pace is 1.21 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.50. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 7.5 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Win | Draw | Defeat | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | home | 2026-11-21 | 33% | 30% | 37% | 1.30 |
 Rodina Moscow | home | 2026-11-29 | 71% | 18% | 11% | 2.31 |
 Akron Tolyatti | away | 2026-12-05 | 44% | 28% | 28% | 1.60 |
 Dynamo Makhachkala | away | 2027-02-27 | 38% | 26% | 36% | 1.41 |
 Zenit | away | 2027-03-06 | 20% | 25% | 55% | 0.86 |
Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Orenburg and it will write when results and performance diverge.
The season so far
Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.
Rostov 2:1 Zenit 0:3 
Rubin Kazan 1:1 · away
Lokomotiv Moscow 1:1 
Fakel Voronezh 0:0 · away
Spartak Moscow 1:1 · awayAkron Tolyatti 2:2 
Dynamo Moscow 0:1 · away
Krasnodar 0:0 Dynamo Makhachkala 4:0 Rodina Moscow 2:2 · away
Akhmat Grozny 1:0 · away
CSKA Moscow 0:0 
Krylia Sovetov 0:2 · awayBaltika Kaliningrad · 11.21Rodina Moscow · 11.29Akron Tolyatti · 12.05Dynamo Makhachkala · 02.27Zenit · 03.06Club players
Around them in the table
| Place | Club | P | Points | xPTS | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 14 | 18 | 15.9 | +2.1 |
| 9 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 14 | 17 | 23.1 | −6.1 |
| 10 | Orenburg | 14 | 17 | 20.3 | −3.3 |
| 11 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 14 | 16 | 18.6 | −2.6 |
| 12 | Akhmat Grozny | 14 | 14 | 18.1 | −4.1 |