The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.43.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Kazan | 1 | 1.69 | −0.7 | 1.66 |
| Akhmat Grozny | 1 | 1.26 | −0.3 | 1.10 |
Rubin Kazan: +1.7 for the season (6 in the table). Akhmat Grozny: −1.5 (10). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.