Points. 10 points from 11.5 xPTS (−1.5). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 10th. Points match the quality of play.
Attack. 1.05 xG per match — 10th of 16 (league average 1.21): an average attack for this league. Scored 13 goals from 9.4 xG (+3.5): the ball is going in more often than such chances usually allow. Finishing like this rarely lasts.
Defence. 1.16 xGA per match — 8th of 16 for solidity (league average 1.21). Conceded 13 goals from 10.4 xGA — 2.6 more than expected: opponents are scoring almost everything and the goalkeeper is not helping. By chances allowed the defence is league-average — some of these goals come down to bad luck and should drop.
Playing to its level. Points (10) are close to the quality of play (11.5 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.11 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.25. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.2 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | home | 2026-10-10 | 1.02 |
| Zenit | away | 2026-10-17 | 0.81 |
| Orenburg | home | 2026-10-24 | 1.29 |
| Dynamo Moscow | away | 2026-10-31 | 0.78 |
| Rodina Moscow | home | 2026-11-07 | 2.33 |