The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Clear favourites: Atalanta, 60% to win against 18%.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
The most common scores at these chances: 1:0 (about 10%), 1:1 and 2:0.
Attack against defence favours Atalanta: xG 1.96 against 0.98. Both sides are in similar shape: Atalanta 5 points from the last 5 matches, Parma 4 points. Atalanta are taking a little more than they play for (+2.2 on xPTS); that usually evens out.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table → · Serie A: next round predictions