Serie A: points against performance
The table shows how many points a club has won and how many its chances deserved (xPTS). The Δ gap is either a cushion or a regression risk.
More points than performance: 
Lazio, 
Roma, 
AC Milan, 
Como, 
Frosinone, 
Cagliari.
Fewer points than performance: 
Juventus, 
Napoli, 
Fiorentina, 
Monza, 
Venezia, 
Udinese.
xPTS table
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 1 | 11 | 29 | 18.0 | +11.0 | 1.83 | 1.39 |
 Inter | 2 | 11 | 28 | 26.0 | +2.0 | 2.82 | 1.14 |
| Roma | 3 | 11 | 27 | 23.6 | +3.4 | 2.82 | 1.38 |
| AC Milan | 4 | 11 | 24 | 18.2 | +5.8 | 1.90 | 1.38 |
| Como | 5 | 11 | 23 | 19.8 | +3.2 | 2.04 | 1.41 |
| Frosinone | 6 | 11 | 20 | 14.8 | +5.2 | 1.98 | 2.18 |
| Juventus | 7 | 11 | 18 | 21.8 | −3.8 | 1.58 | 0.73 |
 Bologna | 8 | 11 | 17 | 19.1 | −2.1 | 1.91 | 1.47 |
| Cagliari | 9 | 11 | 16 | 11.0 | +5.0 | 1.27 | 2.01 |
| Napoli | 10 | 11 | 15 | 22.2 | −7.2 | 2.11 | 1.14 |
 Torino | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14.4 | −0.4 | 1.22 | 1.35 |
 Atalanta | 12 | 11 | 14 | 12.8 | +1.2 | 1.67 | 1.92 |
 Genoa | 13 | 11 | 13 | 12.3 | +0.7 | 1.05 | 1.37 |
 Lecce | 14 | 11 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | 1.44 | 2.30 |
| Fiorentina | 15 | 11 | 9 | 14.4 | −5.4 | 1.64 | 1.87 |
 Parma | 16 | 11 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 0.89 | 2.16 |
 Sassuolo | 17 | 11 | 8 | 10.1 | −2.1 | 1.37 | 2.33 |
| Monza | 18 | 11 | 7 | 13.2 | −6.2 | 1.59 | 1.85 |
| Venezia | 19 | 11 | 6 | 11.9 | −5.9 | 1.57 | 2.13 |
| Udinese | 20 | 11 | 5 | 8.5 | −3.5 | 1.19 | 2.40 |
All Serie A matches with xG → · Serie A top scorers with xG → · Fantasy picks for the Serie A → · Serie A: next round predictions · See the league on the interactive matrix →
Who leads Serie A by xPTS, i.e. by quality of play?
By xPTS the top spot in Serie A belongs to Inter: 26.0 expected points against 28 actually won, which is 2nd place in the league table.
Why does one team lead by xG while another leads by points?
Points depend on how many chances a team converted, while xPTS is built on their quality: how many points the team's shots and the shots against its goal deserved. A team that scores more than its xG wins matches that were even on the pitch and sits higher than it plays; when finishing evens out, the gap usually shrinks. In Serie A right now Lazio is ahead on points (29 points, 18.0 by performance, 8th by xPTS), while Inter is the best by performance.
What is the xPTS table?
xPTS means expected points. For every match we use the quality of both teams' chances to work out how many points each deserved and add them up over the season. The difference between actual and expected points shows whether a team is lucky or falling short. It is an assessment of play, not a forecast of results.
Who is the luckiest and who the unluckiest in Serie A?
Lazio has the most points above performance: 11.0 more than its chances gave. Napoli falls shortest: 7.2 points below what its chances gave. Over a long run such a gap usually shrinks, though on shorter stretches it can persist.