All 10 matches of the Serie A round: the model's chances, expected goals and why the picture looks the way it does.
The most one-sided match of the round: Udinese — Roma (79% for the favourite); the most even: Frosinone — Torino.
An xG model, not betting tips and not a guarantee.
The most one-sided match of the round: Udinese — Roma (79% for the favourite); the most even: Frosinone — Torino. Below is every match: the model's chances, expected goals and why the picture looks the way it does.
A Poisson model over xG works out the chances: how dangerous each side is in attack and how much it allows, with a home advantage applied. Expected goals and the likeliest scores come from the same model. It is an assessment of play, not a guarantee of the result.
The highest chance this round is 79% to win: in roughly 21 cases out of a hundred the favourite does not win. Chance plays a visible part in a single match, so the model is usually more accurate over a run than in one game.
Full Serie A xPTS table → · Fixtures · Fantasy picks for the Serie A →