Pitch Radar

Bologna vs Inter: what the numbers say

Serie A · Round 7 · 17 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win28%Bologna
Draw22%
Away win51%Inter
Expected points, home1.05

What to expect

A slight edge to Inter: 51% against 28%. Attack against defence: Inter should create more, 2.16 expected goals a match against 1.46. Bologna are 6.0 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Bologna18528.0−6.01.431.21
Inter251311.1+1.93.111.49

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table →