Points. 12 points from 9.5 xPTS (+2.5). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 3rd in the league, but 2nd in the table. Source of the surplus: how goals are spread across matches: goal difference +7 almost matches the expected +7.8, so the extra points came from tight games.
Attack. 3.25 xG per match — 2nd of 20 (league average 1.72): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 13 goals from 13.0 xG — finishing is on par.
Defence. 1.29 xGA per match — 4th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.72). Conceded 6 goals from 5.2 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.62 per match: expected pace 2.4 points per match vs the current 3.0.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 3.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 2.12. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 10.6 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | away | 2026-09-19 | 0.56 |
| Parma | home | 2026-10-11 | 2.90 |
| Bologna | away | 2026-10-17 | 1.86 |
| Fiorentina | home | 2026-10-25 | 2.66 |
| Venezia | away | 2026-10-28 | 2.61 |