Como vs Cagliari: match prediction

Como

VS

Cagliari

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

74%Como

15%Draw

11%Cagliari

A one-sided picture: Como win 74% of the time in the model, the opponent only 11%.

Expected goals and likely score

2.70Como · model expected goals · Cagliari0.94

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3	2	1	0	0
1	7	7	3	1	0
2	10	9	4	1	0
3	9	8	4	1	0
4	6	5	3	1	0

The most common scores at these chances: 2:0 (about 10%), 2:1 and 3:0.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Almost one-way traffic on expected goals: Como 2.70 against 0.94. The two sides are at opposite ends on form: Como 12 points from the last 5 matches, Cagliari just 3 points. The table flatters Cagliari: 5.0 points above their play, and a gap like that usually narrows.

Form: recent matches

ComoWWWWL

CagliariLLLLW

Team comparison

59

League position

2316

Points

19.811

Expected points (xPTS)

2.041.27

xG per match

1.412.01

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table → · Serie A: next round predictions