Lazio vs Lecce: match prediction

Lazio

VS

Lecce

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

73%Lazio

15%Draw

12%Lecce

Lazio are big favourites: 73% to win, 12% for the opponent.

Expected goals and likely score

2.78Lazio · model expected goals · Lecce1.05

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2	2	1	0	0
1	6	6	3	1	0
2	8	9	5	2	0
3	8	8	4	1	0
4	5	6	3	1	0

Matches with chances like these most often end 2:1 (about 9%), then 2:0 and 3:1.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

A big gap in chances in the model: Lazio 2.78, the opponent 1.05. A big gap in form: Lazio 13 points from the last 5 matches, Lecce only 4 points. Lazio have 11.0 points more than their play earned; a cushion like that usually shrinks.

Form: recent matches

LazioWWWWD

LecceWLLLD

Team comparison

114

League position

2910

Points

188.9

Expected points (xPTS)

1.831.44

xG per match

1.392.30

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table → · Serie A: next round predictions