Monza vs Fiorentina: match prediction

Monza

VS

Fiorentina

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

47%Monza

22%Draw

32%Fiorentina

A slight edge: Monza, 47% against 32%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.96Monza · model expected goals · Fiorentina1.59

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3	5	4	2	1
1	6	9	7	4	1
2	6	9	7	4	1
3	4	6	5	2	1
4	2	3	2	1	0

Matches with chances like these most often end 1:1 (about 9%), then 2:1 and 1:2.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

Monza are slightly ahead on the model's expected goals: 1.96 against 1.59. Fiorentina are in better form: 5 points from the last 5 matches, the opponent 3 points. The table is unfair to Monza: 6.2 points below their play. The gap usually narrows, though not necessarily at once.

Form: recent matches

MonzaWLLLL

FiorentinaLLDWD

Team comparison

1815

League position

79

Points

13.214.4

Expected points (xPTS)

1.591.64

xG per match

1.851.87

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table → · Serie A: next round predictions