Napoli vs Torino: match prediction

Napoli

VS

Torino

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

65%Napoli

21%Draw

14%Torino

Clear favourites: Napoli, 65% to win against 14%.

Expected goals and likely score

1.89Napoli · model expected goals · Torino0.73

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	5	2	0	0
1	14	10	4	1	0
2	13	9	3	1	0
3	8	6	2	1	0
4	4	3	1	0	0

Matches with chances like these most often end 1:0 (about 14%), then 2:0 and 1:1.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

A big gap in chances in the model: Napoli 1.89, the opponent 0.73. Similar form: Napoli 5 points from the last 5 matches, Torino 7 points. Napoli are well short: 7.2 points below their play. Teams like that usually catch up over time, but there is no guarantee.

Form: recent matches

NapoliLDWLD

TorinoWWLLD

Team comparison

1011

League position

1514

Points

22.214.4

Expected points (xPTS)

2.111.22

xG per match

1.141.35

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table → · Serie A: next round predictions