Parma vs Roma: match prediction

Parma

VS

Roma

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Model chances

6%Parma

11%Draw

83%Roma

Everything points to Roma: 83% against 6%.

Expected goals and likely score

0.81Parma · model expected goals · Roma3.20

Score probability, %: rows are home goals, columns away goals

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2	6	9	10	8
1	1	5	8	8	6
2	1	2	3	3	3
3	0	1	1	1	1
4	0	0	0	0	0

In the model 0:3 comes up most often (about 10%), then 0:2 and 1:3.

The scores for each match are the most common outcomes at those chances; any single score is always unlikely.

Why

The model expects nearly all the chances to fall to Roma: xG 3.20 against 0.81. Roma are collecting points far more steadily: 13 points from the last 5 matches, the opponent 4 points. Roma have 3.4 points more than their play earned; a cushion like that usually shrinks.

Form: recent matches

ParmaLLDWL

RomaWDWWW

Team comparison

163

League position

827

Points

7.223.6

Expected points (xPTS)

0.892.82

xG per match

2.161.38

xGA per match (lower is better)

Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.

All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table → · Serie A: next round predictions