The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
The model sees no clear favourite: 43% / 22% / 35% (home, draw, away).
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Matches with chances like these most often end 1:1 (about 9%), then 2:1 and 1:2.
Expected goals are close: Sassuolo 1.88 against 1.67 for the opponent. Similar form: Sassuolo 1 point from the last 5 matches, Fiorentina 2 points. The table is unfair to Fiorentina: 6.0 points below their play. The gap usually narrows, though not necessarily at once.
Chances come from both teams' strength by xG with a home advantage; line-ups and injuries are not part of the calculation.
All Serie A matches with xG → · Full Serie A xPTS table → · Serie A: next round predictions