The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: Bayern Munich was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 5 | 4.08 | +0.9 | 2.63 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1.25 | −0.2 | 0.29 |
Bayern Munich: −1.0 for the season (2 in the table). VfB Stuttgart: −0.6 (15). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.