Bayern Munich

Next match

1. FC Köln · at home, 20 Nov 2026
Win 87% · draw 9% · defeat 5%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 21 points from 24.8 xPTS (−3.8). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 1st. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−3.3 goals vs xG) and extra goals conceded (+1.3 vs xGA).

Attack. 3.59 xG per match — 1st of 18 (league average 1.85): creates more in front of goal than anyone in the league. Scored 29 goals from 32.3 xG — 10% fewer than expected. A small finishing shortfall, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 0.86 xGA per match — 1st of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): allows less in front of its own goal than anyone in the league. Conceded 9 goals from 7.7 xGA — 17% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.42 points per match: expected pace 2.8 points per match vs the current 2.3.

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.33 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 2.68. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 13.4 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Bayern Munich and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league