VfB Stuttgart
Next match
Schalke 04VfB StuttgartSchalke 04 · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 50% · draw 20% · defeat 30%
Fixture difficulty
The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.
What the numbers say
Points. 12 points from 11.1 xPTS (+0.9). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 10th in the league, but 8th in the table. Points match the quality of play. Inside that balance fewer goals conceded than expected (−6.8 vs xGA), but finishing falls short (−4.1 vs xG) — one cancels the other.
Attack. 2.12 xG per match — 4th of 18 (league average 1.85): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 15 goals from 19.1 xG — 22% fewer than expected. Finishing is clearly below par — the chances are the same, so the goals will probably follow.
Defence. 2.42 xGA per match — 18th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): allows more in front of its own goal than anyone in the league. Conceded 15 goals from 21.8 xGA — 31% fewer than expected. Part of these clean sheets rests on luck rather than defending.
Playing to its level. Points (12) are close to the quality of play (11.1 xPTS).
Round by round
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Fixtures and forecast
Current pace is 1.33 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.58. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 7.9 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Win | Draw | Defeat | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 | away | 2026-11-21 | 50% | 20% | 30% | 1.70 |
 Eintracht Frankfurt | home | 2026-11-28 | 53% | 18% | 30% | 1.76 |
 Elversberg | away | 2026-12-05 | 44% | 19% | 37% | 1.51 |
 Union Berlin | home | 2026-12-12 | 72% | 15% | 13% | 2.30 |
 Freiburg | away | 2026-12-19 | 16% | 17% | 68% | 0.63 |
Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow VfB Stuttgart and it will write when results and performance diverge.
The season so far
Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.
Bayern Munich 1:5 · away
1. FC Köln 4:1 
Hoffenheim 1:2 · away
Borussia Dortmund 0:1 
Paderborn 2:0 · away
Hamburger SV 0:1 · away
Borussia Mönchengladbach 2:3 
Bayer Leverkusen 4:2 · away
Werder Bremen 1:0 Schalke 04 · 11.21Eintracht Frankfurt · 11.28Elversberg · 12.05Union Berlin · 12.12Freiburg · 12.19Club players
Around them in the table
| Place | Club | P | Points | xPTS | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Werder Bremen | 9 | 15 | 12.4 | +2.6 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 9 | 13 | 7.3 | +5.7 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 9 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 |
| 9 | Hoffenheim | 9 | 12 | 14.3 | −2.3 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 9 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 |
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