The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
The score matched the game: VfB Stuttgart was the better side by chances too.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 3.52 | +0.5 | 1.72 |
| 1. FC Köln | 1 | 2.86 | −1.9 | 1.12 |
VfB Stuttgart: −0.6 for the season (15 in the table). 1. FC Köln: −1.8 (13). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.