VfB Stuttgart — 1. FC Köln 4:1
VfB Stuttgart
1. FC KölnThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: VfB Stuttgart was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 3.52 | +0.5 | 1.72 |
| 1. FC Köln | 1 | 2.86 | −1.9 | 1.12 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38' | Bilal El Khannouss | VfB Stuttgart | 0.10 | Joshua Vagnoman |
| 59' | Grischa Prömel | VfB Stuttgart | 0.12 | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 74' | Ermedin Demirovic | VfB Stuttgart | 0.25 | Finn Jeltsch |
| 80' | Marius Bülter | 1. FC Köln | 0.69 | |
| 89' | Joshua Vagnoman | VfB Stuttgart | 0.03 |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80' | Marius Bülter | 1. FC Köln | 0.82 | blocked |
| 14' | Dzenan Pejcinovic | VfB Stuttgart | 0.67 | hit the woodwork, header |
| 8' | Joshua Vagnoman | VfB Stuttgart | 0.62 | hit the woodwork |
Shots: VfB Stuttgart 22, 1. FC Köln 18; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 4 and 3.
How the game went
In the first half xG was VfB Stuttgart 1.95, 1. FC Köln 0.12: a big edge for VfB Stuttgart. In the second half xG was VfB Stuttgart 1.59, 1. FC Köln 2.77: a clear edge for 1. FC Köln. The edge in chances passed from VfB Stuttgart to 1. FC Köln. 1. FC Köln scored 1 from 2.86 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.
How it fits the season
VfB Stuttgart: +0.9 for the season (8 in the table). 1. FC Köln: −5.0 (15). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.