1. FC Köln

Next match

Bayern Munich · away, 20 Nov 2026
Win 5% · draw 9% · defeat 87%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 9 points from 14.0 xPTS (−5.0). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 8th in the league, but 15th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−5.8 goals vs xG).

Attack. 1.75 xG per match — 11th of 18 (league average 1.85): an average attack for this league. Scored 10 goals from 15.8 xG — 37% fewer than expected. Finishing is clearly below par — the chances are the same, so the goals will probably follow.

Defence. 1.56 xGA per match — 4th of 18 for solidity (league average 1.85): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 14 goals from 14.0 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed. What they allow is what they concede.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.55 points per match: expected pace 1.6 points per match vs the current 1.0.

9 matches played. Over this distance the metrics already show a trend, but randomness is still large — treat this as an early signal, not a verdict.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.24. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.2 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow 1. FC Köln and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full Bundesliga xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league