Arsenal — Chelsea 2:1

Arsenal

2:1

Chelsea

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

The score matched the game: Arsenal was the better side by chances too.

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Arsenal	2	2.81	−0.8	2.69
Chelsea	1	0.43	+0.6	0.21

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
1'	Morgan Rogers	Chelsea	0.04	Jorrel Hato
24'	Kai Havertz	Arsenal	0.04	Declan Rice
49'	Martin Odegaard	Arsenal	0.56	Christos Tzolis

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
49'	Martin Odegaard	Arsenal	0.56	goal
11'	Gabriel	Arsenal	0.52	saved, from a set piece
4'	Riccardo Calafiori	Arsenal	0.48	saved, from a set piece

Shots: Arsenal 16, Chelsea 13; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 4 and 0.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Arsenal 1.92, Chelsea 0.15: a big edge for Arsenal. In the second half xG was Arsenal 0.96, Chelsea 0.28: a small edge for Arsenal. The edge in chances lasted the whole match.

How it fits the season

Arsenal: +8.0 for the season (1 in the table). Chelsea: +3.2 (5). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Everton — Manchester United 2:2

All EPL matches with xG →