Chelsea

Next match

Leeds United · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 40% · draw 25% · defeat 35%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 16 points from 12.8 xPTS (+3.2). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 13th in the league, but 5th in the table. Source of the surplus: finishing (+3.3 goals above xG) and conceding less than expected (−1.5 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.57 xG per match — 11th of 20 (league average 1.60): an average attack for this league. Scored 19 goals from 15.7 xG — 21% more than expected. Finishing is clearly above par — some of these goals will probably stop going in.

Defence. 1.75 xGA per match — 15th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.60): allows plenty of chances near its own goal. Conceded 16 goals from 17.5 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed. What they allow is what they concede.

Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.32 per match: expected pace 1.3 points per match vs the current 1.6.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 1.60 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.21. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 6.0 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Chelsea and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full EPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league