The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
A fair draw: the xG gap is only 0.19.
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 2 | 1.06 | +0.9 | 1.49 |
| Manchester United | 2 | 0.87 | +1.1 | 1.20 |
Everton: +1.4 for the season (7 in the table). Manchester United: −3.4 (12). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.