Crystal Palace — Manchester City 1:4
Crystal Palace
Manchester CityThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Who deserved it
The score matched the game: Manchester City was the better side by chances too.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 1 | 0.93 | +0.1 | 0.50 |
| Manchester City | 4 | 2.57 | +1.4 | 2.34 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16' | Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 0.29 | Antoine Semenyo |
| 53' | Mathis Cherki | Manchester City | 0.50 | Phil Foden |
| 55' | Gianluigi Donnarumma (own goal) | Crystal Palace | — | |
| 58' | Mathis Cherki | Manchester City | 0.03 | Josko Gvardiol |
| 83' | Erling Haaland | Manchester City | 0.12 | Phil Foden |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53' | Mathis Cherki | Manchester City | 0.50 | goal |
| 27' | Phil Foden | Manchester City | 0.46 | off target |
| 49' | Eddie Nketiah | Crystal Palace | 0.45 | off target |
Shots: Crystal Palace 9, Manchester City 18; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 3.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Crystal Palace 0.42, Manchester City 1.53: a clear edge for Manchester City. In the second half xG was Crystal Palace 0.50, Manchester City 1.05: a small edge for Manchester City. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Manchester City scored 4 from 2.57 xG: more than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.
How it fits the season
Crystal Palace: −2.5 for the season (20 in the table). Manchester City: +0.1 (3). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.