Points. 3 points from 4.0 xPTS (−1.0). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 16th. A small shortfall, still within the margin of error. Source: extra goals conceded (+2.1 vs xGA).
Attack. 1.61 xG per match — 11th of 20 (league average 1.64): an average attack for this league. Scored 6 goals from 6.5 xG — finishing is on par.
Defence. 2.23 xGA per match — 19th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 11 goals from 8.9 xGA — 2.1 more than expected: opponents are scoring almost everything and the goalkeeper is not helping. But plenty of chances are allowed too — it is not just bad luck.
Playing to its level. Points (3) are close to the quality of play (4.0 xPTS).
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 0.75 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.07. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 5.3 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | away | 2026-09-19 | 0.71 |
| Nottingham Forest | home | 2026-10-11 | 0.81 |
| Brighton | away | 2026-10-18 | 0.41 |
| Newcastle United | home | 2026-10-25 | 1.99 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | away | 2026-10-31 | 1.43 |