Manchester City

Next match

Fulham · at home, 21 Nov 2026
Win 67% · draw 17% · defeat 15%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A kind run.

What the numbers say

Points. 21 points from 20.9 xPTS (+0.1). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 1st in the league, but 3rd in the table. Points match the quality of play. On top of that, finishing falls short (−2.2 vs xG) and more goals conceded than expected (+0.5 vs xGA).

Attack. 2.32 xG per match — 1st of 20 (league average 1.60): creates more in front of goal than anyone in the league. Scored 21 goals from 23.2 xG — 9% fewer than expected. A small finishing shortfall, still within the usual spread.

Defence. 1.25 xGA per match — 4th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.60): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 13 goals from 12.5 xGA — exactly in line with the chances allowed. What they allow is what they concede.

Playing to its level. Points (21) are close to the quality of play (20.9 xPTS).

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 2.10 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.94. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.7 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Manchester City and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full EPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league