Points. 12 points from 8.5 xPTS (+3.5). By quality of play (xPTS) the club sits exactly where it is in the table: 2nd. Source of the surplus: conceding less than expected (−2.1 vs xGA).
Attack. 2.09 xG per match — 4th of 20 (league average 1.64): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 8 goals from 8.4 xG — finishing is on par.
Defence. 1.02 xGA per match — 2nd of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 2 goals from 4.1 xGA — 2.1 fewer than expected: the goalkeeper is bailing them out or opponents are missing. The defence itself is one of the most solid in the league, so even after a correction they will concede little.
Regression risk: HIGH. Points are ahead of performance by 0.89 per match: expected pace 2.1 points per match vs the current 3.0.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 3.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 2.19. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 10.9 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | home | 2026-09-19 | 2.16 |
| Liverpool | away | 2026-10-11 | 1.71 |
| Ipswich Town | home | 2026-10-17 | 2.47 |
| Aston Villa | away | 2026-10-24 | 2.55 |
| Brighton | home | 2026-10-31 | 2.04 |