Points. 4 points from 6.7 xPTS (−2.7). By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 7th in the league, but 13th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−1.5 goals vs xG) and extra goals conceded (+1.5 vs xGA).
Attack. 2.12 xG per match — 2nd of 20 (league average 1.64): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Only 7 goals scored from 8.5 xG (−1.5): the chances are there, the finishing is not. If the chance quality holds, the goals will come.
Defence. 1.38 xGA per match — 5th of 20 for solidity (league average 1.64). Conceded 7 goals from 5.5 xGA — 1.5 more than expected: opponents are scoring almost everything and the goalkeeper is not helping. By the quality of chances allowed this is one of the best defences in the league — fewer goals should go in.
Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.67 points per match: expected pace 1.7 points per match vs the current 1.0.
The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.
Current pace is 1.00 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.89. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 9.5 points. Expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment.
| Opponent | Venue | Date | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | away | 2026-09-20 | 1.93 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | home | 2026-10-10 | 2.48 |
| Leeds United | away | 2026-10-18 | 1.43 |
| Bournemouth | home | 2026-10-25 | 1.84 |
| Chelsea | away | 2026-10-31 | 1.79 |