Pitch Radar

Hull City vs Everton: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 6 · 11 Oct 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win32%Hull City
Draw27%
Away win41%Everton
Expected points, home1.24

What to expect

A slight edge to Everton: 41% against 32%. Attack against defence: Everton should create more, 1.55 expected goals a match against 1.29. Read the table with care: Hull City have taken 2.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Hull City8585.5+2.51.151.44
Everton7597.6+1.41.671.44

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →