Crystal Palace — Nottingham Forest 3:1

Crystal Palace

3:1

Nottingham Forest

The score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.

Who deserved it

Crystal Palace won against the run of chances: Nottingham Forest created more (3.76 xG against 2.25).

The numbers

Team	Goals	xG	Goals − xG	Expected points
Crystal Palace	3	2.25	+0.8	0.76
Nottingham Forest	1	3.76	−2.8	2.10

Goals

Minute	Goal	Team	Shot xG	Assist
2'	Dan Ndoye	Nottingham Forest	0.28
40'	Daichi Kamada	Crystal Palace	0.54	Quinten Timber
48'	Jefferson Lerma	Crystal Palace	0.48	Adam Wharton
58'	Yeremi Pino	Crystal Palace	0.40

Key chances

Minute	Player	Team	xG	Outcome
34'	Liam Delap	Nottingham Forest	0.65	saved
40'	Daichi Kamada	Crystal Palace	0.54	goal
48'	Jefferson Lerma	Crystal Palace	0.48	goal, header, from a corner

Shots: Crystal Palace 13, Nottingham Forest 24; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 4 and 6.

How the game went

In the first half xG was Crystal Palace 0.84, Nottingham Forest 2.47: a big edge for Nottingham Forest. In the second half xG was Crystal Palace 1.60, Nottingham Forest 1.31: about even. Nottingham Forest scored 1 from 3.76 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.

How it fits the season

Crystal Palace: −2.5 for the season (20 in the table). Nottingham Forest: −8.6 (16). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.

Other matches of the round

Hull City — Everton 2:2Liverpool — Manchester City 0:3

All EPL matches with xG →