The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Nottingham Forest are favourites: 56% to win against 21%. Attack against defence: Nottingham Forest should create more, 1.85 expected goals a match against 1.26. Nottingham Forest are 4.2 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 15 | 5 | 4 | 5.4 | −1.4 | 1.52 | 2.00 |
| Nottingham Forest | 13 | 5 | 5 | 9.2 | −4.2 | 1.70 | 1.00 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.