Ipswich Town — Nottingham Forest 1:1
Ipswich Town
Nottingham ForestThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Who deserved it
A draw, but Nottingham Forest created more (2.76 xG against 0.86) — points dropped.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town | 1 | 0.86 | +0.1 | 0.41 |
| Nottingham Forest | 1 | 2.76 | −1.8 | 2.45 |
Goals
| Minute | Goal | Team | Shot xG | Assist |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' | Neco Williams | Nottingham Forest | 0.44 | Daniel Muñoz |
| 40' | Julio Enciso | Ipswich Town | 0.27 |
Key chances
| Minute | Player | Team | xG | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30' | Morgan Gibbs-White | Nottingham Forest | 0.66 | blocked |
| 72' | Liam Delap | Nottingham Forest | 0.47 | off target, header |
| 12' | Neco Williams | Nottingham Forest | 0.44 | goal |
Shots: Ipswich Town 7, Nottingham Forest 17; big chances (xG 0.3 and above): 1 and 4.
How the game went
In the first half xG was Ipswich Town 0.78, Nottingham Forest 1.44: a small edge for Nottingham Forest. In the second half xG was Ipswich Town 0.07, Nottingham Forest 1.30: a clear edge for Nottingham Forest. The edge in chances lasted the whole match. Nottingham Forest scored 1 from 2.76 xG: fewer than they created. As a rule, finishing like this evens out over time.
How it fits the season
Ipswich Town: +0.8 for the season (14 in the table). Nottingham Forest: −8.6 (16). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.