Nottingham Forest

Next match

Bournemouth · away, 21 Nov 2026
Win 27% · draw 25% · defeat 49%

Fixture difficulty

The next three opponents by the club's own chances. A mixed run.

What the numbers say

Points. 9 points from 17.6 xPTS (−8.6) — the biggest underperformance in the league. By quality of play (xPTS) it ranks 5th in the league, but 16th in the table. Source of the shortfall: missed chances (−8.7 goals vs xG) and extra goals conceded (+1.6 vs xGA).

Attack. 1.77 xG per match — 5th of 20 (league average 1.60): one of the most dangerous attacks in the league. Scored 9 goals from 17.7 xG — 49% fewer than expected — the worst finishing in the league. A drought this size is usually short-lived: with the same chance quality the goals tend to come back.

Defence. 1.14 xGA per match — 2nd of 20 for solidity (league average 1.60): allows few chances near its own goal. Conceded 13 goals from 11.4 xGA — 14% more than expected. The gap is small and usually closes over a season.

Upside potential: HIGH. Performance is better than results by 0.86 points per match: expected pace 1.8 points per match vs the current 0.9.

Round by round

The solid line is points won, the dashed line is expected points (xPTS). The gap shows how far results run ahead of performance, or behind it.

Fixtures and forecast

Current pace is 0.90 points per match, the pace expected from the next opponents is 1.69. Over the next 5 rounds the model gives 8.4 points. Outcome chances and expected points come from the opponent's attack and defence with a home advantage adjustment: a fixture is worth 3 points for a win and 1 for a draw.

Follow this club: send the bot the command /follow Nottingham Forest and it will write when results and performance diverge.

The season so far

Every match: played with the score, ahead with the date. Click for the breakdown.

Club players

Around them in the table

Full EPL xPTS table →

Other clubs of the league