The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Leeds United are favourites: 61% to win against 16%. Attack against defence: Leeds United should create more, 1.65 expected goals a match against 1.22. Tottenham Hotspur are 3.5 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.8 | 1.45 | 1.28 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 20 | 5 | 2 | 5.5 | −3.5 | 1.16 | 1.84 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.