Nottingham Forest — Manchester City 3:1
Nottingham Forest3:1
Manchester CityThe score says how it ended. xG says how it should have ended: it is the sum of the chances each shot was worth, not an opinion about the game.
Score3:1
Home xG0.98Nottingham Forest
Away xG1.57Manchester City
Expected points0.96 : 1.79
Who deserved it
Manchester City created more (1.57 xG against 0.98) and left with nothing.
The numbers
| Team | Goals | xG | Goals − xG | Expected points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 3 | 0.98 | +2.0 | 0.96 |
| Manchester City | 1 | 1.57 | −0.6 | 1.79 |
How it fits the season
Nottingham Forest: −8.6 for the season (16 in the table). Manchester City: +0.1 (3). The gap between points and xPTS is built from matches like this one.
Leeds United — 
Tottenham Hotspur 1:0
Arsenal — 
Hull City 1:0
Fulham — 
Newcastle United 1:1