Pitch Radar

Arsenal vs Hull City: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 10 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win65%Arsenal
Draw22%
Away win13%Hull City
Expected points, home2.18

What to expect

Arsenal are favourites: 65% to win against 13%. Attack against defence: Arsenal should create more, 1.66 expected goals a match against 1.12. Read the table with care: Hull City have taken 2.5 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Arsenal25129.8+2.21.881.09
Hull City8585.5+2.51.151.44

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →