Pitch Radar

Fulham vs Newcastle United: what the numbers say

EPL · Round 10 · 7 Nov 2026 · season 2026/27

The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.

Home win55%Fulham
Draw21%
Away win23%Newcastle United
Expected points, home1.87

What to expect

Fulham are favourites: 55% to win against 23%. Attack against defence: level, 1.73 and 1.60 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Newcastle United have taken 3.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.

How they arrive

ClubPlacePPointsxPTSΔxG/matchxGA/match
Fulham19525.1−3.11.592.09
Newcastle United9584.3+3.71.111.87

Recent matches

Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.

All EPL matches with xG → · Full EPL xPTS table →