The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Fulham are favourites: 55% to win against 23%. Attack against defence: level, 1.73 and 1.60 expected goals a match. Read the table with care: Newcastle United have taken 3.7 points more than their play deserved, so their position flatters them.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 19 | 5 | 2 | 5.1 | −3.1 | 1.59 | 2.09 |
| Newcastle United | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 1.11 | 1.87 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.