The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
A slight edge to Sunderland: 46% against 30%. Attack against defence: level, 1.65 and 1.61 expected goals a match. Sunderland are 3.7 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 14 | 5 | 4 | 7.7 | −3.7 | 2.01 | 1.77 |
| Leeds United | 5 | 5 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.8 | 1.45 | 1.28 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.