The match has not been played. This is not a tip: the model turns the chances both sides create and concede into probabilities, and it is wrong regularly.
Manchester United are favourites: 55% to win against 24%. Attack against defence: Manchester United should create more, 1.76 expected goals a match against 1.53. Bournemouth are 4.8 points short of what their play deserved — more dangerous than the table suggests.
| Club | Place | P | Points | xPTS | Δ | xG/match | xGA/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 12 | 5 | 5 | 8.3 | −3.4 | 2.12 | 1.44 |
| Bournemouth | 17 | 5 | 3 | 7.8 | −4.8 | 1.62 | 1.40 |
Probabilities come from a Poisson model over both sides' xG with a home advantage applied. We know nothing about injuries, suspensions or rotation, and we do not give betting tips.